For millions of Americans,  news that recession is officially over was met with marked  skepticism. While it is indeed  true that gross domestic product (GDP) is again growing  after seven quarters of shrinkage, and stock markets are  rising rapidly, the more than  fifteen million unemployed  Americans are left to wonder  when their lives will return to  normal.

Any one indicator does  not reveal the true state of the  economy. Trusting stock market results for real economic  news is farcical. They are a level removed from actual production, and they suffer from the  speculative whims of investors.  The end of the recession has  caused significant growth in  most stock indexes: for example, the S&P 500 has risen by  more than 400 points, or more  than 60 percent from its low of  683 earlier this year. Likewise,  the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen nearly 3,800  points, more than a 60 percent  increase from its low.

However, is the economy  60 percent better than it was  a mere nine months ago? Of  course not. As a measurement  of recovery, the markets have  severe drawbacks.  The stock  markets have a striking inability to differentiate bubbles  from real growth, as evidenced  by record highs during the dot-com and real estate bubbles of  this decade. Possibly the only  advantage it holds is its instantaneous nature – real economic data can take more than  a month to tabulate. Consider  unemployment numbers – the  results for November are released in December.

According to those unemployment results, there  are presently more than fifteen million Americans who  are actively trying to find employment, and failing. This  amounts to a greater than 10  percent unemployment rate,  which is nearly double the average rate from years as recent  as 2007. According to the latest numbers available from the  Bureau of Labor Statistics, job  losses are still occurring in the  construction and manufacturing sectors. This report also  notes that the number of jobs  lost was the lowest one-month  loss since the recession began.

Capital investment still  lags, and the return to positive  GDP growth appears to have  been powered by increased  utilization of existing factories  without increasing staffs. The  goods these factories manufacture are sold to those who still  have jobs. According to reports  released by the Federal Government, stores are keeping  lean inventories even into the  fourth quarter, the most important quarter of the retail year.  Traditionally, nearly 60 percent of all retail sales are made  in the fourth quarter, and this  abnormal behavior on the part  of retailers indicates that they  believe sales will  be down significantly from previous years.

Consumer  confidence, an  indicator which  tries to determine how willing consumers  will spend by  measuring how  confident they  are in the stability of their income, has only  improved modestly from its  low. Those who  still have jobs are  saving instead of  spending. The  personal savings  rate has more  than quadrupled  since the beginning of the recession.

Before true  economic recovery can take place, many of the  unemployed must find work.  An out-of-work person simply does not have the money  to consume at the rates necessary for economic growth. Job  growth and economic growth  are linked – job growth will  give those who are presently  employed the confidence they  need to spend, which increases  demand, which producers will  match by increasing their labor  forces.

The recession may have  officially ended in October, but  for those out of work, things  have not returned to normal.