Even expenses such as Christmas trees can make wallets feel light during Christmastime.

As we enter the upcoming  weeks of frenzied shopping and  holiday spending, mixed signals  make it difficult for anyone to  predict the future economy.  Unemployment hit an all time high  of 10.2 percent in October, yet the  stock market seems to be continuing its upward trend.  The statistics could indicate a further delve  into recession, or the beginning of  a long awaited economic recovery.   Which brings us to the important  question: what does this mean for  Christmas shopping?

A Gallup poll in early November revealed that Americans  plan to spend approximately the  same amount on holiday shopping as last year: $638 on average.   Although the numbers remain  the same, demographics have  changed.  Young adults generally plan to increase spending on  Christmas gifts this year, while  middle-age adults plan to cut back  on spending.  Adults over the age  of 55 are planning to maintain  spending.

While some may be alarmed  to learn that most Americans  plan to match one of the worst  years for retail spending during  the holidays, most experts agree  that the devastating 3.4 percent  drop in spending last year will not  be repeated.  Years when Americans predicted that their spending would equal or exceed that  of the year before were typically  followed by strong growth in sales  during November and December.  It was only those years when  Americans estimated lower expenditures than the year before  that usually resulted in minimal  or nonexistent growth.

Therefore, because those  polled in November predicted  that they would generally maintain their spending levels from  last year, it is not likely to see the  same kind of devastating drop in  sales as in 2008.  Whether this  means that sales will grow or simply remain stagnant is yet to be  determined, however.  According  to CNN.com, “analysts are generally calling for retail sales to either fall no more than 1 percent  or rise no more than 2.4 percent  during the November-December  period.”  Exact predictions cannot  be made.

Black Friday, one of the  biggest days of shopping during  Christmas season, saw an 8.6 percent decrease in average spending from last year.  Consumers  typically spent $106 daily over  the weekend – down from $116  last year.

The decrease in spending  could be a result of a general decision to spend less on presents this  Christmas, or could be connected  with an overall change in what is  considered “normal” spending.    Many argue that the past year  has cultivated a redefinition of  “normal” spending to be a more  frugal one.  It is also possible that  consumers simply plan to spread  out their holiday spending during  the weeks leading up to Christmas, rather than knocking out the  entire Christmas to-do list in just  one day.  Time will only tell, as  statistics continue to roll in during the remaining weeks in December.

Keeping the uncertain future  of the economy in mind, here are  several tips for budgeting during  the Christmas season:  • Decide on a concrete  dollar amount you want to allocate for spending, and stick to it.

• Use cash rather than  credit cards.
• Be discerning when creating a list of those to purchase  gifts for; try to limit presents to  one per person.
• Consult craft stores and  magazines for ideas as to making  presents rather than purchasing them.  Added bonus?  You appear  thoughtful and devoted while saving money.
• Shop online at sites like  Overstock.com or Amazon for  bargains.

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